Sitagri Morning Briefing Sample

28/05/2025

  US & world markets

Financial markets

European stock markets ended higher on Tuesday, benefiting from relief generated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to wait until July 9 to allow negotiations with the European Union (EU) on tariffs.
In Paris, where gains faded at the end of the session, the CAC 40 ended on a stable note (-0.02%) at 7,826.79 points. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 0.96% and in London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.69%. MIB 40124 +0.34%. IBEX 14244 +0.14%.
The EuroStoxx 50 index gained 0.55%, the FTSEurofirst 300 0.33% and the Stoxx 600 0.45%.
The easing of trade tensions between the United States and Brussels led to a second consecutive session of gains for European stock markets on Tuesday, which welcomed the US president’s retreat on his threat to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from June 1 and the reinstatement of the July 9 deadline to give negotiations a chance.
The European Commission, which is preparing for the talks, has asked major European companies and company executives to detail their plans to invest in the United States, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The White House tenant said on Tuesday that he hoped the EU would “open up” to trade with the United States, although he reiterated his threat to impose surcharges unilaterally if a deal was not reached.
The easing of bond tensions also helped boost equities, as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries had recently soared on fears over U.S. debt, which could rise further with the tax cut bill currently before Congress.
On the macroeconomic front, investors learned on Tuesday that inflation in France fell in May to its lowest level since December 2020, a “very encouraging sign of disinflation in action”, according to the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, who also said that the normalisation of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) was “probably not complete”.
Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut at next week’s meeting.
The titles that stood out:
In Paris, Elis gained 2%, the cleaning services specialist forecasting annual growth in its turnover and a gradual improvement in its EBITDA margin.
Elsewhere in Europe, Telecom Italia shares fell 2.1% after an Italian court decision to delay the reimbursement of 1 billion euros in royalties to the telecommunications group.
The European defence sector gained 1.6%, helped by the context of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the green light from Brussels to the creation of a €150 billion joint defence procurement programme.
Indicator:
In Germany, consumer sentiment is expected to improve further as June approaches.
The German economy is still facing difficulties and is expected to contract in 2025 for the third consecutive year, by 0.3%, the German Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) estimated on Tuesday.
In the USA
The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Tuesday, buoyed by investors’ appetite for risk, after U.S. President Donald Trump reneged on his threat of 50% tariffs on European Union products, in order to allow negotiations between Washington and Brussels to lead to a trade deal.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.78%, or 740.58 points, to 42,343.65.
The broader S&P 500 gained 118.72 points, or 2.05%, to 5,921.54.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 461.96 points, or 2.47%, to 19,199.16.
Wall Street’s “Magnificent Seven” contributed to the Nasdaq’s strong gains, while the S&P 500 returned to 5% of its record close on February 19 after tumbling in the wake of the vast so-called reciprocal taxes announced in early April by Donald Trump.
Investors’ appetite for risk also benefited from a report showing that US consumer confidence climbed more than expected in May.
Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Bloomberg that economic data so far did not point to increased pressure on prices or unemployment, comments illustrating the views of many U.S. central bank officials.
The Fed is expected not to change interest rates until it sees the full impact of the Trump administration’s trade policy.
The minutes of the Fed’s latest monetary policy meeting are expected on Wednesday.
Among stocks, semiconductor stocks rose on the eve of Nvidia’s much-anticipated quarterly earnings release.
U.S. Treasury yields declined.

Currencies

In currency markets, the dollar rallied on Tuesday, buoyed by Donald Trump’s decision to extend the deadline for tariffs against the EU.
The greenback gained 0.38% against a basket of benchmark currencies.
The euro lost 0.43% to $1.1338.
The ounce of gold fell 1.57% to $3307.
Rate
Long-term bond yields fell on Tuesday in the euro zone on encouraging French inflation data and as concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs remain.
The yield on the 10-year German Bund fell 2.7 basis points to 2.5340%. The yield on the two-year bond ended flat at 1.7910%.
In the United States, the yield on 30-year Treasuries fell more than 8 basis points to 4.9562%, a move that reflected the decline in long-term Japanese sovereign yields, as Reuters reported on Tuesday that the Japanese finance ministry could reduce the issuance of these bonds.
The yield on the ten-year US bond lost 6 basis points to 4.4515%.
The Treasury Department will sell $69 billion in two-year bonds on Tuesday, then $70 billion and $44 billion in five- and seven-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday.

Crude oil

Oil prices are retreating on concerns about a supply glut after the Iranian and U.S. delegations made progress in their talks and OPEC+ may decide to increase production at a meeting later in the week.
Brent crude lost 1.79% to $63.58 a barrel.
U.S. light crude WTI fell 1.89% to $60.37.

Grain market

Wheat

The wheat market fell on Tuesday.
Futures on the Chicago SRW closed 13 to 14 cents lower.
Kansas City’s HRW contracts posted losses of 14 to 15 cents in Tuesday’s session.
Minneapolis spring wheat futures posted losses of 10 to 12 cents.
Weekly data from Crop Progress indicate that 87% of spring wheat is planted, 7 percentage points higher than normal, and 60% of plants are emerged. Initial assessments of spring wheat were 45% “good/excellent”, which is well below the commercial estimate of 70%.
The winter wheat crop reached 75% heading, ahead of the average of 70%. Conditions have declined from 2% to 50%, compared to 52% expected.
The USDA’s export inspection report shows a total of 561,980 tons (20.65 mbu) of wheat shipped in the week ending May 22. This represents an increase of 30.29% from the previous week and 40.88% from the same week in 2024.
South Korea was the main destination with 133,130 tons, of which 67,957 tons were destined for Indonesia and 57,759 tons for Venezuela.
MY shipments totalled 21.27 million tons (718.6 mbu) with just over one week of reporting left in the marketing year, an increase of 16.28% compared to the same week last year.
The July wheat contract at CBOT closed at $5.28 1/2, down 14 cents.

Corn

Corn futures were weighed down by the weakness in the wheat market, with contracts closing flat in July and down 4 to 5 cents in the months of the new harvest.
After the close, the weekly crop progress report showed that the U.S. corn crop was 87% planted, just 2 percentage points higher than the five-year average.
The emergence was estimated at 67%, above the average of 60%. The first NASS assessments of the year showed that 68% of the harvest was good or excellent, below the estimate of 73%.
Export inspection data showed a total of 1,396 MMT (54.97 mbu) of maize shipped during the week of May 22. This represents a decrease of 20.69% compared to the previous week and 23.52% compared to the same week last year.
Japan was the main destination with 374,460 MT, with 297,363 MT to Mexico and an additional 199,544 MT to Colombia. MY exports totaled 46.98 MMT (1.85 bbu) since 1 September, 29.15% higher than in the same period last year.
AgRural estimates that the second Brazilian maize harvest was harvested at 0.9% in the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná, which is lower than the 2% pace recorded at the beginning of the season last year.
Datagro estimates the total harvest at 132.7 million metric tons, an increase of 1 million metric tons from the previous figure.
The corn contract closed at $4.59 1/2, unchanged.

Soybean

Soybeans advanced on Tuesday, with contracts steady at 3 cents higher than most months.
Weekly export inspection data recorded soybean shipments of just 194,904 tons (7.16 mbu) in the week ending May 22. This represents a decrease of 12.6% compared to the previous week and 13.5% compared to the same week last year.
Egypt was the main destination with 53,244 tons, of which 51,539 tons were destined for Mexico.
MY shipments now stand at 44.34 MMT (1,629 bbu), an increase of 11% compared to the same week last year.
Crop progress data this afternoon showed 76 per cent of crops were planted on Sunday, above average of 68 per cent but below the commercial forecast of 77 per cent.
The fundraising was at 50%, faster than the average of 40%. The conditions will be communicated next Monday.
After the threat to impose 50% tariffs on European products from 1 June, President Trump spoke with the EU president over the weekend. Following this call, the potential deadline for tariffs was extended to July 9 to allow time for negotiations.
The July soybean contract in Chicago closed at $10.62 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents.

SETTLEMENTS
CBOT
Wheat Corn Soybean
07/2025 07/2025 07/2025
Settl. Change This morning Settl. Change This morning Settl. Change This morning
528,5 -14 6 459,5 -1,2 1,25 1062,5 1,4 -1,25
, ,
Euronext
Wheat Corn Rapeseed
09/2025 06/2025 08/2025
Settl. Change Settl. Change Settl. Change
201,25 -4,25 198 -2 486,5 -2

Soft commodities

Sugar

Raw sugar in New York on July closed Tuesday at 17.22 ct/lb, down -0.07 (-0.40%), and white sugar in London on August closed at $482.60/t, down -$1.00 (-0.21%).
Sugar prices fell on Tuesday, with New York sugar posting its lowest level in three weeks and London its lowest level in four and a quarter months.
Over the past two weeks, expectations of a global sugar surplus have pushed prices higher. Last Thursday, the USDA, in its semi-annual report, projected that global sugar production in 2025/26 would increase by 4.7% year-on-year (y/y) to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-on-year.
Reminder
Last Thursday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s sugar production in 2025/26 would increase by 2.3% year-on-year to a record 44.7 million tons. Similarly, India’s sugar production is forecast to increase by 25 percent year-on-year to 35.3 million tons, supported by favorable monsoon rains and an increase in the area under sugar cultivation. Moreover, Thailand’s sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year to 10.3 million tons.

Coffee

Arabica coffee on July closed Tuesday at 361.70 ct/lb, up +0.70 (+0.19%), and robusta coffee on July in London closed at $4696/t, down -$94 (-1.96%).
Coffee prices showed mixed developments on Tuesday, with robusta falling sharply to its lowest level in seven weeks.
In contrast, Arabica coffee rose on Tuesday, on fears that poor weather conditions in Brazil could reduce crop yields. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee producing region, Minas Gerais, received 0.3 mm of rain in the week ended May 24, 4% of the historical average.
Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past four weeks, with arabica hitting a six-week low last Friday, due to prospects of increased coffee production and ample supplies.
Reminder
Last Monday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected that Brazil’s coffee production in 2025/26 would increase by 0.5% year-on-year (y/y) to 65 million bags, and Vietnam’s coffee production in 2025/26 would increase by 6.9% year-on-year to 31 million bags.

Cocoa

Cocoa in NY on July closed Tuesday at $9739/t, down -$25 (-0.26%) and cocoa in London on July closed at £6562/t, down -£82 (-1.23%).
Cocoa prices closed lower on Tuesday, with London cocoa posting its lowest level in two weeks.
Favourable rainfall forecasts in West Africa are expected to support the development of cocoa crops in the world’s largest cocoa-producing regions, which is a downward factor for prices. Meteorologist Vaisala said moderate showers are expected to continue this week in cocoa-growing regions of West Africa.
The rebound in current cocoa stocks is bearish for prices. After hitting a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on Jan. 24, ICE’s recorded cocoa stocks at U.S. ports rebounded and reached an 8-month high of 2,187,574 bags on Tuesday.
Reminder
Government data released on Monday showed that Ivorian farmers shipped 1.6 MMT of cocoa to ports in this marketing year, from October 1 to May 25, up +9.6% from last year, but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December.

Cotton

Cotton futures retreated at Tuesday’s close, with contracts down 31 to 54 points.
Weekly data from NASS Crop Progress showed that 52% of crops were planted as of May 25, down from the average of 56%. The harvest was also up 3%, below the average of 4%.
The Cotlook A index lost 50 points on Friday, to 78.25.
ICE cotton stocks were stable on 23 May, with a certified stock level of 42,240 bales.
The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) lost 38 points on Thursday afternoon, to 53.52 cents/lb.
The July cotton contract in NY closed at 65.57, down 54 points.

SETTLEMENTS
ICE            
Coffee EU     Coffee US    
07/2025     07/2025    
Settl.   Change Settl.   Change
4696   -94 361,70   0,70
Sugar EU     Sugar US    
08/2025     07/2025    
Settl.   Change Settl.   Change
482,60   -1,00 17,22   -0,07
Cocoa EU     Cocoa US    
07/2025     07/2025    
Settl.   Change Settl.   Change
6562,00   -82,00 9739   -25,00
Cotton     
07/2025    
Settl.   Change
65,57   -0,41

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