SITAGRI SALMON INDEX
Week 11 & 12 — 2026
Norwegian Salmon
Market Overview
Market Overview
Week 11 (10–16 March) & Week 12 (17–23 March 2026) — Estimated & Projected
Norwegian salmon prices are back in momentum. SISALMONI 3–6kg reached NOK 95.68/kg this week — the Euronext ESF settlement benchmark and ESMA-recognised reference index — its strongest Week 11 level since the 2023 peak, up +9.8% week-on-week. SSB confirmed a price rebound to NOK 88.03/kg for the week of March 2–8, up 8.2% week-on-week, while Undercurrent News reported a further jump of approximately NOK 10 on the FCA Oslo 3–6kg assessment for Week 11.
On the demand side, Norway's February salmon exports grew 10% year-on-year to 97,463 tonnes, with China posting exceptional growth of +126% in volume and +107% in value, partly driven by Chinese New Year pre-loading. Week 10 exports showed some softening amid an EU slowdown, but forward buying ahead of the Easter window is expected to support prices through Week 12–13.
U.S. wholesalers reported being quoted higher prices for Norwegian salmon ahead of Seafood Expo North America (SENA), which ran 15–17 March in Boston. The event — the largest seafood trade gathering in North America — brought additional attention to Norwegian origin at a critical seasonal moment. SSB Week 11 export volumes will be published tomorrow, Wednesday 18 March.
On the demand side, Norway's February salmon exports grew 10% year-on-year to 97,463 tonnes, with China posting exceptional growth of +126% in volume and +107% in value, partly driven by Chinese New Year pre-loading. Week 10 exports showed some softening amid an EU slowdown, but forward buying ahead of the Easter window is expected to support prices through Week 12–13.
U.S. wholesalers reported being quoted higher prices for Norwegian salmon ahead of Seafood Expo North America (SENA), which ran 15–17 March in Boston. The event — the largest seafood trade gathering in North America — brought additional attention to Norwegian origin at a critical seasonal moment. SSB Week 11 export volumes will be published tomorrow, Wednesday 18 March.
Market Context
SISALMONI — Week 11, 2026 (published Tuesday 17 March, 15:00 CET)
SISALMONI 3–6kg BENCHMARK
NOK 95.68
↑ +9.8% vs W10 | +8.52 NOK
SISALMONI AVG (all sizes)
NOK 94.45
↑ +9.3% vs W10 | +8.01 NOK
Total Volume (W11)
4,277 t
Avg. weight: 5.15 kg
Week 11 — Year-on-Year Comparison (2014–2026)
W11 2026 — 3–6kg
95.68
NOK/kg
Hist. Avg 3–6kg W11 (2014–25)
73.77
NOK/kg
W11 2026 Volume
4,277
tonnes
Hist. Avg Vol W11
4,085
tonnes
| Year | SISALMONI 3–6kg (NOK/kg) ★ | AVG all sizes (NOK/kg) | Volume (t) | vs Hist. Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 44.53 | 44.06 | 5,826 | −39.6% |
| 2015 | 42.36 | 41.75 | 5,522 | −42.6% |
| 2016 | 61.51 | 61.31 | 4,493 | −16.6% |
| 2017 | 63.39 | 62.71 | 3,652 | −14.1% |
| 2018 | 70.14 | 69.16 | 4,178 | −4.9% |
| 2019 | 72.46 | 71.75 | 3,271 | −1.8% |
| 2020 | 68.05 | 66.94 | 4,111 | −7.8% |
| 2021 | 61.07 | 60.38 | 3,822 | −17.2% |
| 2022 | 80.61 | 79.56 | 4,523 | +9.3% |
| 2023 | 128.63 | 127.28 | 2,383 | +74.4% |
| 2024 | 109.03 | 107.88 | 2,643 | +47.8% |
| 2025 | 83.49 | 82.36 | 4,596 | +13.2% |
| 2026 | 95.68 | 94.45 | 4,277 | +29.7% |
W11 2026 vs history: The SISALMONI 3–6kg index — the Euronext ESF settlement benchmark — reached NOK 95.68, standing +29.7% above the 12-year historical average for Week 11 (NOK 73.77). Volume at 4,277t is above the historical average (4,085t), reversing the low-volume trend of 2023–2024. Price strength is broad-based across all weight classes, confirming a sustained recovery heading into Q2.
Water Temperatures
Seasonal transition underway. Week 11 marks the end of the late-winter cold plateau across all regions. From W12, increasing solar radiation and longer daylight hours drive a slow but measurable warming trend — first in southern and west coast waters, more gradually in the north.
| Region | W10 (Ref.) | W11 (Estimated) | W12 (Projected) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North | ~5.7 °C | ~5.8 °C | 6.0 – 6.4 °C | ↑ |
| Central | ~6.5 °C | ~6.6 °C | 6.8 – 7.2 °C | ↑ |
| West Coast | ~7.4 °C | ~7.5 °C | 7.7 – 8.2 °C | ↑ |
| South | ~8.2 °C | ~8.3 °C | 8.5 – 9.0 °C | ↑ |
Northern waters remain near seasonal minimum. Southern and west coast regions enter early spring inflection. The north–south gradient widens as photoperiod increases.
Water Quality — Dissolved Oxygen
| Region | W10 (Ref.) | W11 (Estimated) | W12 (Projected) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North | ~7.0 mg/L | ~7.0 mg/L | ~6.9 mg/L | → |
| Central | ~6.7 mg/L | ~6.7 mg/L | ~6.6 mg/L | → |
| West Coast | ~6.3 mg/L | ~6.3 mg/L | ~6.1 mg/L | ↓ |
| South | ~5.7 mg/L | ~5.6 mg/L | ~5.5 mg/L | ↓ |
Winter oxygen plateau persists through W11. From W12, early biological reactivation begins to exert slight downward pressure on dissolved O₂ in southern fjords. No critical threshold breaches expected in the coming two weeks.
Sea Lice Conditions
| Region | W10 (Ref.) | W11 (Estimated) | W12 (Projected) | Trend | Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North | ~0.50 | ~0.52 | ~0.53 | ↑ | High |
| Central | ~0.45 | ~0.47 | ~0.49 | ↑ | High |
| West Coast | ~0.41 | ~0.43 | ~0.46 | ↑ | High |
| South | ~0.54 | ~0.56 | ~0.59 | ↑ | Critical |
Regulatory threshold: 0.5 adult female lice per fish — applicable from smolt migration season (approx. W17–W26 depending on region). South coast approaching threshold ahead of season.
Lice activity remains cold-suppressed through W11. W12 temperature increase — particularly in the south and west coast — begins to shorten lice generation time. IMR operational model projects a gradual increase in copepodid release from W12 onward. Vigilance recommended in production areas PO3–PO6.
Algae Risk Levels
| Region | W11 | W12 (Projected) | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | Low | Low | Low |
| Central | Low | Low – Moderate | Low |
| West Coast | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
| South | Low – Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
March conditions remain generally unfavorable for major harmful algal bloom development. However, rising temperatures and increasing daylight create early precursor conditions from W12 onward — particularly along the West Coast and South. Species of concern: Pseudochattonella and Chrysochromulina leadbeateri. Monitoring frequency should increase from W12 in PO3–PO6.
⚑ Key Watch Points — Week 12
South coast sea lice trajectory approaching regulatory threshold ahead of smolt migration season. Combined with early algae precursor conditions on the West Coast, W12 requires increased monitoring frequency in production areas PO3–PO6. Temperature warming across all regions will accelerate both biological dynamics from mid-March onward.
Sources
MET Norway
BarentsWatch API
IMR / Havforskningsinstituttet
AlgeVarsling.no
SSB Statistics Norway
SISALMONI — Sitagri
All farming condition figures are estimates and projections based on seasonal climatological baselines and IMR/MET Norway operational model outputs. They do not replace real-time data from BarentsWatch or IMR. Contributors are encouraged to flag any significant deviation observed at farm level. Market data (SSB, SISALMONI) reflects last published figures as of report date.
* SISALMONI is a product of FinanceAgri, a registered benchmark administrator ( n° BMR2020001187 ) under art. 34 of the “Benchmark” regulation ((EU) 2016/1011), authorized and regulated by the French authorities.
Interested in weekly salmon prices?
Ask your access to Sitagri Index services
follow us?
© FinanceAgri 2026 | Privacy policy | Index methodology | Contact